Market update • February 2026
Are More RBA Rate Rises Coming in 2026? Here’s How to Get Ahead of Them
The RBA has lifted the cash rate — and the question on everyone’s mind is whether this is a one-off or the start of more increases. Here’s what the RBA is watching, what forecasts are suggesting, and how borrowers can reduce exposure before the next move lands.
Sources: RBA media release • Canstar forecast coverage
What happened (and why it’s got people nervous)
On 3 February 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the cash rate target by 0.25% to 3.85%, and the decision was unanimous. For many borrowers, the bigger issue isn’t just the single move — it’s what it might signal about what comes next.
Real talk: Nobody can predict the RBA perfectly — but you can structure your loan so you’re not caught off guard if rates rise again.
Why there could be more increases (based on the RBA’s own wording)
The RBA’s statement points to a few themes that matter for what happens next — mainly inflation, demand, and the labour market. Here’s the plain-English version:
Inflation pressure returned: the RBA said inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025 and may remain above target for some time. (RBA)
Demand is stronger than expected: they noted private demand strengthened and housing activity and prices have picked up. (RBA)
Labour market is still tight: the RBA described conditions as “a little tight”, with wage and cost pressures still worth watching. (RBA)
What the forecasts are saying (and why they’re split)
Forecasts aren’t a promise — they’re a guide. Canstar’s round-up highlights that views across major banks are mixed, which is exactly why it pays to avoid an “all-in” bet on one scenario. (Canstar)
Practical takeaway: if more rises happen, being prepared matters. If they don’t, you still want a loan structure that suits your cashflow and goals.
If rates rise again: the simplest way to reduce risk
The goal isn’t to guess perfectly. It’s to reduce exposure. For many borrowers, that means reviewing whether their current setup is too dependent on variable rates — especially if there’s little to no money in offset.
The “offset rule of thumb”
- If you have a healthy offset balance (or will build one soon), keeping a variable portion can make sense because your cash actively reduces interest.
- If you have little to no offset and don’t expect to build one in the next 1–2 years, it may be worth considering fixing a portion (or more) for stability.
Common “no-regrets” structures
Two popular approaches are a 50/50 split (simple and balanced), or keeping a set amount variable (often $50k–$100k) while fixing the remainder (offset-friendly).
Want the deeper breakdown?
If you’d like the full explainer on what the February hike means and how fixed vs variable decisions work in practice, these two posts pair nicely with this one:
What to do now (before the next decision forces your hand)
If you’re worried about more increases, the best time to act is before the market reprices again. Here’s the 10-minute checklist I run through with clients:
Quick rate-rise readiness check
- What rate are you on right now — and is it actually competitive?
- How much is in offset most of the time (not just payday)?
- If rates rise another 0.25%–0.75%, are you comfortable with repayments?
- Do you need flexibility in the next 12–24 months (renos, upgrade, cashflow)?
- Would a split/fix reduce stress while keeping options open?
Bottom line: We can’t control the RBA — but we can control how exposed your home loan is. If more rate rises arrive, borrowers who’ve already reviewed their structure generally feel it a lot less than those who wait.
Book a rate review
If the February hike made you think “I should probably check my rate”… you’re right. A quick review can show whether you’re still competitive, and what options you have to reduce exposure if rates rise again.
Quick chat? Call us and we’ll tell you if your rate looks competitive.
General information only and not financial advice. Any examples are indicative and may not reflect your personal circumstances. Consider your objectives and circumstances before acting.