RBA Interest Rate September 2026: Are Rates About to Rise Again?

RBA interest rate September 2026: what is the market expecting?

As at 10 September, market-based estimates were putting the probability of a September rate rise at roughly the mid-60% range. One widely followed estimate based on ASX interbank futures put the chance of any rise at about 66%.

That does not mean the RBA is certain to lift rates. Market pricing moves constantly as new inflation, jobs, spending, oil-price and global-market information arrives.

Inflation fell to 3.5% — so why are we still talking about a rate rise?

The July Consumer Price Index gave borrowers some good news. Annual headline inflation fell from 3.8% in June to 3.5% in July.

If you only looked at that number, another rate rise might seem difficult to justify.

But the RBA does not look at one headline number in isolation.

That is why the RBA interest rate September 2026 debate has not disappeared simply because headline CPI moved lower.

The Reserve Bank is still telling us inflation is the problem

At its August meeting, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. However, it also said inflation remained too high and that risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside.

The RBA has already increased the cash rate three times in 2026: in February, March and May. That lifted the cash rate from 3.60% at the end of 2025 to 4.35%.

On 8 September, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser described an economy with growth roughly around trend, unemployment near historic lows and strong real household-income growth. He then identified the central issue very plainly: inflation remains too high.

Not every major bank thinks the September RBA meeting ends with a hike

This is where the outlook gets interesting.

NAB has brought forward its forecast and now expects the RBA to increase the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points in September, taking it to 4.60%.

However, Westpac's current base case is a November increase to 4.60%. CBA and ANZ have also been reported as favouring November rather than September.

That split matters. The disagreement is not really about whether inflation is a problem. It is about whether the Board has seen enough evidence to move in September or prefers to wait for more data.

Growth is subdued — but it has not collapsed

The latest ABS national accounts show the Australian economy grew 0.4% in the June quarter and 2.1% over the year.

That is not spectacular growth. The ABS described economic growth as subdued and noted that households continued to behave cautiously.

At the same time, the economy has remained resilient enough that the RBA cannot simply assume inflation will disappear on its own.

The July labour-force data also showed unemployment at 4.5%. Employment fell by around 16,000 people during the month, which is evidence that parts of the economy are cooling.

Oil prices could make the inflation problem harder

Another complication is energy.

The RBA has repeatedly pointed to the Middle East conflict and elevated oil and commodity prices as risks to inflation. Oil prices have again been volatile in September.

Higher oil prices can work their way through the economy in several ways: fuel becomes more expensive, transport costs rise and businesses can face higher operating and distribution costs.

Not every increase in oil prices leads directly to an RBA hike. However, persistent energy inflation can make the process of returning inflation to target slower and more difficult.

Another rate rise would flow through to mortgage repayments

The cash rate does not automatically equal your home-loan rate. Each lender decides how and when to adjust variable rates.

However, another 0.25 percentage-point increase would place further upward pressure on variable mortgage pricing.

As a simple illustration, a $600,000 principal-and-interest loan over 30 years moving from 6.00% to 6.25% would increase the estimated monthly repayment from about $3,597 to $3,694 — roughly $97 more each month.

That is an illustration only. Your actual impact depends on your remaining balance, term, repayment type, lender rate, offsets and other loan features.

You do not need to wait for the RBA decision to review your mortgage

If your home loan is already feeling expensive, the September decision does not need to be the starting gun.

There are several things worth reviewing before 29 September:

• your current variable rate and comparison rate;
• whether your existing lender has a lower rate available for similar borrowers;
• whether requesting a pricing review could reduce your rate;
• how your loan compares with other lender options;
• whether refinancing costs would outweigh the potential saving;
• how effectively your offset or redraw is being used; and
• whether your current loan structure still suits what you are trying to achieve.

You can also explore the Loan Location Mortgage Lab or read more about our lending approach on the Loan Location services page.

So, will the RBA raise rates in September 2026?

Our read is that September is now a genuine live meeting.

The case for a hike is straightforward: underlying inflation remains too high, domestic inflation is sticky, oil remains a risk and the RBA has been noticeably more concerned about inflation in recent public comments.

The case for holding is also real: headline inflation has eased, unemployment has increased, growth remains subdued and three earlier hikes are still working their way through household budgets and the broader economy.

That is why we would not describe a September increase as certain.

The next RBA decision is Tuesday 29 September 2026

The Monetary Policy Board meets on 28–29 September 2026.

The RBA's decision statement is scheduled for 2:30 pm AEST on Tuesday 29 September, followed by the media conference at 3:30 pm.

Until then, market pricing and economist forecasts can continue to move. That makes it worth treating every percentage quoted before the meeting as a snapshot rather than a promise.